Fight outcome model
UFC
Predicts the winner of upcoming UFC fights using each fighter's real fight history - experience, recent form, striking and grappling stats, physical measurables - not just the betting favorite. A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough. Also shows an experimental method-of-victory read (KO/TKO, Submission, Decision) for informational purposes - no sportsbook market exists for that yet, so it isn't tracked as a play.
Upcoming fights
13
Qualifying plays
8
All-time record
41-22
Hit rate
65.1%
Units
+6.7u
Total graded
63
Luana Santos vs Yana Santos
UFC
Model leans
Luana Santos 74.5%
Method of victory (experimental)
Tom Nolan vs Renato Moicano
UFC
Model leans
Tom Nolan 71.8%
Method of victory (experimental)
Mickey Gall vs Zach Reese
UFC
Model leans
Zach Reese 52.9%
Method of victory (experimental)
Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia Szabova
UFC
Model leans
Tainara Lisboa 60.4%
Method of victory (experimental)
Piera Rodriguez vs Talita Alencar
UFC
Model leans
Piera Rodriguez 58.9%
Method of victory (experimental)
Joe Kropschot vs Nick Klein
UFC
Model leans
Nick Klein 77.6%
Method of victory (experimental)
JeongYeong Lee vs Julian Erosa
UFC
Model leans
Julian Erosa 54.5%
Method of victory (experimental)
Theodor Berggren vs Rodrigo Sezinando
UFC
Model leans
Theodor Berggren 60.9%
Method of victory (experimental)
Gaston Bolanos vs Francis Marshall
UFC
Model leans
Francis Marshall 63.8%
Method of victory (experimental)
Andre Petroski vs Azamat Bekoev
UFC
Model leans
Andre Petroski 50.9%
Method of victory (experimental)
Dakota Hope vs Francis Marshall
UFC
Model leans
Francis Marshall 67.5%
Method of victory (experimental)
Carlos Leal vs Randy Brown
UFC
Model leans
Carlos Leal 53.8%
Method of victory (experimental)
Jacobe Smith vs Randy Brown
UFC
Model leans
Jacobe Smith 64.1%
Method of victory (experimental)
Settled picks
RESULTS LOG
Most recent 63 of 63 graded UFC picks, newest first.
| Date | Matchup | Pick | Odds | Result | Units | Running |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Erin Blanchfield | Erin Blanchfield (74.8%) | -303 | LOSS | -3.0u | +6.7u |
| 2026-10-18 | Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault | Kyle Daukaus (60.9%) | -185 | LOSS | -1.8u | +9.7u |
| 2026-10-17 | Joel Faglier vs Javad Mahjoub | Joel Faglier (67.0%) | -120 | WIN | +1.0u | +11.6u |
| 2026-10-17 | SuYoung You vs Cody Chovancek | SuYoung You (60.7%) | +126 | WIN | +1.0u | +10.6u |
| 2026-10-17 | Steven Koslow vs Chad Anheliger | Steven Koslow (66.9%) | -159 | WIN | +1.0u | +9.6u |
| 2026-10-11 | Jai Herbert vs Matheus Camilo | Matheus Camilo (66.3%) | -190 | LOSS | -1.9u | +8.6u |
| 2026-10-11 | Otari Tanzilovi vs Malcolm Wellmaker | Otari Tanzilovi (65.9%) | +172 | WIN | +1.0u | +10.5u |
| 2026-10-11 | Ketlen Souza vs Loopy Godinez | Loopy Godinez (62.6%) | -210 | WIN | +1.0u | +9.5u |
| 2026-10-10 | Ismael Bonfim vs Francisco Prado | Francisco Prado (61.1%) | -144 | WIN | +1.0u | +8.5u |
| 2026-10-10 | RJ Harris vs Allen Frye Jr. | RJ Harris (76.7%) | -260 | LOSS | -2.6u | +7.5u |
| 2026-10-10 | Daria Zhelezniakova vs Alice Pereira | Alice Pereira (68.7%) | -130 | WIN | +1.0u | +10.1u |
| 2026-10-04 | Wang Cong vs Natalia Silva | Natalia Silva (60.1%) | -200 | WIN | +1.0u | +9.1u |
| 2026-10-04 | Payton Talbott vs Deiveson Figueiredo | Payton Talbott (73.3%) | -800 | WIN | +1.0u | +8.1u |
| 2026-10-04 | Roman Kopylov vs Ateba Gautier | Ateba Gautier (65.9%) | -230 | LOSS | -2.3u | +7.1u |
| 2026-10-04 | Roberto Soldic vs Khaos Williams | Khaos Williams (80.4%) | +245 | LOSS | -0.4u | +9.4u |
| 2026-10-04 | Alden Coria vs Imanol Rodriguez | Alden Coria (66.1%) | +120 | LOSS | -0.8u | +9.8u |
| 2026-10-03 | Andrey Pulyaev vs Damian Pinas | Damian Pinas (68.4%) | -600 | WIN | +1.0u | +10.6u |
| 2026-10-03 | Lucas Armand vs Anthony Wint | Anthony Wint (64.6%) | -550 | WIN | +1.0u | +9.6u |
| 2026-10-03 | Bruce Whitehead vs Jacobe Smith | Jacobe Smith (77.9%) | -1200 | WIN | +1.0u | +8.6u |
| 2026-10-03 | Eric Nolan vs Court McGee | Eric Nolan (63.6%) | -225 | WIN | +1.0u | +7.6u |
| 2026-09-27 | Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr. | Raul Rosas Jr. (67.7%) | -145 | WIN | +1.0u | +6.6u |
| 2026-09-27 | Ailin Perez vs Norma Dumont | Ailin Perez (61.9%) | -165 | WIN | +1.0u | +5.6u |
| 2026-09-27 | Sedriques Dumas vs Luis Hernandez | Sedriques Dumas (75.4%) | +201 | LOSS | -0.5u | +4.6u |
| 2026-09-27 | Rinya Nakamura vs Brady Hiestand | Brady Hiestand (66.2%) | +309 | WIN | +1.0u | +5.1u |
| 2026-09-26 | Christian Edwards vs Rodolfo Bellato | Rodolfo Bellato (74.4%) | -173 | LOSS | -1.7u | +4.1u |
| 2026-09-26 | Yazmin Jauregui vs Vanessa Demopoulos | Yazmin Jauregui (67.3%) | -950 | WIN | +1.0u | +5.8u |
| 2026-09-20 | Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van | Joshua Van (70.0%) | -- | WIN | +1.0u | +4.8u |
| 2026-09-20 | Mauricio Ruffy vs Arman Tsarukyan | Arman Tsarukyan (68.2%) | -- | WIN | +1.0u | +3.8u |
| 2026-09-20 | Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua van | Joshua van (70.0%) | -165 | WIN | +1.0u | +2.8u |
| 2026-09-20 | Mauricio Ruffy vs Arman Tsarukyan | Arman Tsarukyan (67.9%) | -310 | WIN | +1.0u | +1.8u |
| 2026-09-20 | Iwo Baraniewski vs Alonzo Menifield | Iwo Baraniewski (63.3%) | -- | LOSS | -1.1u | +0.8u |
| 2026-09-20 | Iwo Baraniewski vs Alonzo Menifield | Iwo Baraniewski (63.3%) | -255 | LOSS | -2.5u | +1.9u |
| 2026-09-20 | Doo Ho Choi vs Patricio Pitbull | Doo Ho Choi (66.7%) | -250 | LOSS | -2.5u | +4.5u |
| 2026-09-20 | Brunno Ferreira vs Edmen Shahbazyan | Edmen Shahbazyan (74.3%) | -170 | WIN | +1.0u | +7.0u |
| 2026-09-20 | Eduarda Moura vs Casey O'neill | Casey O'neill (61.0%) | -- | WIN | +1.0u | +6.0u |
| 2026-09-19 | Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz | Ryan Gandra (60.7%) | -- | WIN | +1.0u | +5.0u |
| 2026-09-19 | Brunno Ferreira vs Edmen Shahbazyan | Edmen Shahbazyan (74.3%) | -- | WIN | +1.0u | +4.0u |
| 2026-09-19 | Eduarda Moura vs Casey O'Neill | Casey O'Neill (61.0%) | -- | WIN | +1.0u | +3.0u |
| 2026-09-12 | Joseph Morales vs Brandon Moreno | Brandon Moreno (60.4%) | -- | WIN | +1.0u | +2.0u |
| 2026-09-12 | Marwan Rahiki vs Tommy McMillen | Tommy McMillen (65.7%) | -- | WIN | +1.0u | +1.0u |
| 2026-09-12 | Curtis Blaydes vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Curtis Blaydes (63.4%) | -- | WIN | +1.0u | 0.0u |
| 2026-09-12 | Dan Ige vs David Martinez | David Martinez (71.1%) | -- | WIN | +1.0u | -1.0u |
| 2026-09-12 | Edgar Chairez vs Tim Elliott | Edgar Chairez (62.0%) | -- | LOSS | -1.1u | -2.0u |
| 2026-09-12 | Muslim Salikhov vs Ignacio Bahamondes | Ignacio Bahamondes (73.9%) | -- | WIN | +1.0u | -0.9u |
| 2026-09-12 | Djorden Santos vs Yousri Belgaroui | Yousri Belgaroui (64.9%) | -- | WIN | +1.0u | -1.9u |
| 2026-09-05 | Daniel Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse | Daniel Hooker (69.1%) | +425 | LOSS | -0.2u | -2.9u |
| 2026-09-05 | Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano | Daniil Donchenko (63.8%) | -233 | WIN | +1.0u | -2.7u |
| 2026-09-05 | Losene Keita vs Muhammadjon Naimov | Muhammadjon Naimov (60.2%) | +287 | LOSS | -0.3u | -3.7u |
| 2026-09-05 | Luis Felipe Dias vs Matthieu Duclos | Matthieu Duclos (78.4%) | +140 | WIN | +1.0u | -3.3u |
| 2026-09-05 | Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann | Mario Pinto (68.4%) | -350 | WIN | +1.0u | -4.3u |
| 2026-09-05 | Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas | Oumar Sy (61.1%) | -258 | LOSS | -2.6u | -5.3u |
| 2026-09-05 | Nathaniel Wood vs Pavel Andrusca | Nathaniel Wood (67.3%) | -290 | LOSS | -2.9u | -2.7u |
| 2026-09-05 | Klaudia Syguła vs Nora Cornolle | Klaudia Syguła (67.5%) | +4000 | LOSS | 0.0u | +0.2u |
| 2026-09-05 | Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro | Sofia Montenegro (74.5%) | +112 | LOSS | -0.9u | +0.2u |
| 2026-08-29 | Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes | Denise Gomes (73.6%) | +123 | WIN | +1.0u | +1.1u |
| 2026-08-29 | Namsrai Batbayar vs Andre Lima | Andre Lima (63.1%) | -285 | WIN | +1.0u | +0.1u |
| 2026-08-29 | Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas | Rei Tsuruya (62.7%) | -770 | WIN | +1.0u | -0.9u |
| 2026-08-23 | Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez | Anthony Hernandez (62.3%) | -216 | LOSS | -2.2u | -1.9u |
| 2026-08-22 | Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev | Kennedy Nzechukwu (62.6%) | +100 | LOSS | -1.0u | +0.2u |
| 2026-08-22 | Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast | Chris Padilla (62.4%) | -119 | WIN | +1.0u | +1.2u |
| 2026-08-22 | Stan Dorsainvil vs Gauge Young | Gauge Young (76.6%) | -177 | LOSS | -1.8u | +0.2u |
| 2026-08-22 | Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey | Jackson McVey (64.2%) | -170 | WIN | +1.0u | +2.0u |
| 2026-08-22 | Elise Reed vs Shanelle Dyer | Shanelle Dyer (81.0%) | -775 | WIN | +1.0u | +1.0u |