Fight outcome model

UFC

Predicts the winner of upcoming UFC fights using each fighter's real fight history - experience, recent form, striking and grappling stats, physical measurables - not just the betting favorite. A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough. Also shows an experimental method-of-victory read (KO/TKO, Submission, Decision) for informational purposes - no sportsbook market exists for that yet, so it isn't tracked as a play.

Upcoming fights

Qualifying plays

All-time record

6-3

Hit rate

66.7%

Units

+1.1u

Total graded

Mauricio Ruffy vs Arman Tsarukyan

UFC 331

Wed, Sep 9, 8:00 PM ET

Mauricio Ruffy: +303Arman Tsarukyan: -380

Model leans

Arman Tsarukyan 68.7%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO44.0%

Submission16.6%

Decision39.4%

Play: Arman Tsarukyan

Robelis Despaigne vs Tai Tuivasa

UFC 331

Wed, Sep 9, 8:00 PM ET

Robelis Despaigne: -540Tai Tuivasa: +409

Model leans

Tai Tuivasa 55.5%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO66.8%

Submission14.8%

Decision18.3%

No play

Rodrigo Vera vs Ramiro Jimenez

UFC

Sat, Sep 12, 3:00 PM ET

Rodrigo Vera: -138Ramiro Jimenez: +112

Model leans

Ramiro Jimenez 54.2%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO34.3%

Submission36.4%

Decision29.3%

No play

Djorden Santos vs Yousri Belgaroui

UFC

Sat, Sep 12, 4:15 PM ET

Djorden Santos: +505Yousri Belgaroui: -700

Model leans

Yousri Belgaroui 64.9%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO34.7%

Submission18.1%

Decision47.1%

Play: Yousri Belgaroui

Muslim Salikhov vs Ignacio Bahamondes

UFC

Sat, Sep 12, 4:30 PM ET

Muslim Salikhov: +350Ignacio Bahamondes: -450

Model leans

Ignacio Bahamondes 73.9%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO46.3%

Submission22.3%

Decision31.4%

Play: Ignacio Bahamondes

Edgar Chairez vs Tim Elliott

UFC

Sat, Sep 12, 4:45 PM ET

Edgar Chairez: -220Tim Elliott: +186

Model leans

Edgar Chairez 59.6%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO19.4%

Submission43.1%

Decision37.5%

No play

Dan Ige vs David Martinez

UFC

Sat, Sep 12, 5:15 PM ET

Dan Ige: +245David Martinez: -300

Model leans

David Martinez 71.1%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO39.5%

Submission11.4%

Decision49.1%

Play: David Martinez

Curtis Blaydes vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta

UFC

Sat, Sep 12, 5:45 PM ET

Curtis Blaydes: +161Waldo Cortes-Acosta: -185

Model leans

Curtis Blaydes 63.4%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO54.1%

Submission19.5%

Decision26.3%

Play: Curtis Blaydes

Alexa Grasso vs Manon Fiorot

UFC

Sat, Sep 12, 6:15 PM ET

Alexa Grasso: +183Manon Fiorot: -215

Model leans

Alexa Grasso 51.5%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO24.6%

Submission17.8%

Decision57.6%

No play

Marwan Rahiki vs Tommy McMillen

UFC

Sat, Sep 12, 6:45 PM ET

Marwan Rahiki: +115Tommy McMillen: -135

Model leans

Tommy McMillen 65.4%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO50.1%

Submission13.7%

Decision36.2%

Play: Tommy McMillen

Joseph Morales vs Brandon Moreno

UFC

Sat, Sep 12, 7:15 PM ET

Joseph Morales: -135Brandon Moreno: +115

Model leans

Brandon Moreno 60.4%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO21.6%

Submission38.1%

Decision40.2%

Play: Brandon Moreno

Eduarda Moura vs Casey O'Neill

UFC 331

Sat, Sep 19, 6:15 PM ET

Eduarda Moura: +150Casey O'Neill: -177

Model leans

Casey O'Neill 61.0%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO28.4%

Submission18.8%

Decision52.7%

Play: Casey O'Neill

Joanderson Brito vs Giga Chikadze

UFC 331

Sat, Sep 19, 6:45 PM ET

Joanderson Brito: -340Giga Chikadze: +274

Model leans

Joanderson Brito 54.7%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO38.6%

Submission27.0%

Decision34.4%

No play

Brunno Ferreira vs Edmen Shahbazyan

UFC 331

Sat, Sep 19, 7:15 PM ET

Brunno Ferreira: +132Edmen Shahbazyan: -155

Model leans

Edmen Shahbazyan 74.4%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO50.6%

Submission21.1%

Decision28.3%

Play: Edmen Shahbazyan

Robelis Despaigne vs Tai Tuivasa

UFC 331

Sat, Sep 19, 7:45 PM ET

Robelis Despaigne: -675Tai Tuivasa: +490

Model leans

Tai Tuivasa 55.2%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO66.8%

Submission14.8%

Decision18.3%

No play

Charles Jourdain vs Marlon Vera

UFC 331

Sat, Sep 19, 8:15 PM ET

Charles Jourdain: -240Marlon Vera: +200

Model leans

Charles Jourdain 62.4%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO30.7%

Submission29.3%

Decision40.0%

Play: Charles Jourdain

Sean Sharaf vs Gable Steveson

UFC 331

Sat, Sep 19, 8:45 PM ET

Sean Sharaf: +600Gable Steveson: -1500

Model leans

Gable Steveson 52.3%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO60.9%

Submission14.8%

Decision24.3%

No play

Iwo Baraniewski vs Alonzo Menifield

UFC 331

Sat, Sep 19, 9:15 PM ET

Iwo Baraniewski: -230Alonzo Menifield: +193

Model leans

Iwo Baraniewski 62.4%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO52.4%

Submission24.9%

Decision22.7%

Play: Iwo Baraniewski

Brian Ortega vs Renato Moicano

UFC 331

Sat, Sep 19, 9:45 PM ET

Brian Ortega: +169Renato Moicano: -200

Model leans

Brian Ortega 50.1%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO26.7%

Submission31.7%

Decision41.6%

No play

Mauricio Ruffy vs Arman Tsarukyan

UFC 331

Sat, Sep 19, 10:45 PM ET

Mauricio Ruffy: +285Arman Tsarukyan: -360

Model leans

Arman Tsarukyan 68.7%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO44.0%

Submission16.6%

Decision39.4%

Play: Arman Tsarukyan

Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van

UFC 331

Sat, Sep 19, 11:15 PM ET

Alexandre Pantoja: -102Joshua Van: -118

Model leans

Joshua Van 71.0%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO27.7%

Submission20.5%

Decision51.8%

Play: Joshua Van

Payton Talbott vs Deiveson Figueiredo

UFC 332

Sat, Oct 3, 9:00 PM ET

Payton Talbott: -550Deiveson Figueiredo: +415

Model leans

Payton Talbott 75.0%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO36.8%

Submission32.5%

Decision30.7%

Play: Payton Talbott

Natalia Silva vs Valentina Shevchenko

UFC 332

Sat, Oct 3, 9:00 PM ET

Natalia Silva: +135Valentina Shevchenko: -155

Model leans

Natalia Silva 58.9%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO28.7%

Submission18.8%

Decision52.5%

No play

Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan

UFC

Sat, Oct 24, 11:30 PM ET

Merab Dvalishvili: +150Petr Yan: -180

Model leans

Petr Yan 53.9%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO23.4%

Submission14.7%

Decision61.9%

No play

Movsar Evloev vs Alex Volkanovski

UFC

Sun, Oct 25, 12:00 AM ET

Movsar Evloev: -108Alex Volkanovski: -112

Model leans

Movsar Evloev 68.6%

Method of victory (experimental)

KO/TKO31.1%

Submission14.7%

Decision54.2%

Play: Movsar Evloev

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Settled picks

RESULTS LOG

Most recent 9 of 9 graded UFC picks, newest first.

Date	Matchup	Pick	Odds	Result	Units	Running
2026-08-29	Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes	Denise Gomes (73.6%)	+123	WIN	+1.0u	+1.1u
2026-08-29	Namsrai Batbayar vs Andre Lima	Andre Lima (63.1%)	-285	WIN	+1.0u	+0.1u
2026-08-29	Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas	Rei Tsuruya (62.7%)	-770	WIN	+1.0u	-0.9u
2026-08-23	Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez	Anthony Hernandez (62.3%)	-216	LOSS	-2.2u	-1.9u
2026-08-22	Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev	Kennedy Nzechukwu (62.6%)	+100	LOSS	-1.0u	+0.2u
2026-08-22	Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast	Chris Padilla (62.4%)	-119	WIN	+1.0u	+1.2u
2026-08-22	Stan Dorsainvil vs Gauge Young	Gauge Young (76.6%)	-177	LOSS	-1.8u	+0.2u
2026-08-22	Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey	Jackson McVey (64.2%)	-170	WIN	+1.0u	+2.0u
2026-08-22	Elise Reed vs Shanelle Dyer	Shanelle Dyer (81.0%)	-775	WIN	+1.0u	+1.0u