Calibration analysis
ACCURACY BY CONFIDENCE GRADE
Higher-confidence grades should become more accurate as sample size increases.
| Grade | Sample | Avg projected | Avg actual | MAE | Bias | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A+ | 103 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 2.35 | -1.03 | Needs work |
| A | 171 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 1.91 | +0.35 | Average |
| B+ | 212 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 1.79 | +0.71 | Average |
| B | 7 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 1.04 | +0.16 | Excellent |
| D | 7 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 3.23 | +2.77 | Needs work |
MAE should generally decrease as confidence rises from D toward A+. Persistent grade inversion may indicate that confidence thresholds need recalibration.
Latest outcomes
RECENT RESULTS
The 30 most recently resolved pitcher projections.
| Date | Pitcher | Grade | Projected | Actual | Difference | Error band | Line | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 |  Braxton Ashcraft | A+ | 5.27 | 9 | +3.7 | Missed 2+ | U 6.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Zac Thornton | A | 4.36 | 6 | +1.6 | Within 2 | U 4.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Drew Rasmussen | A+ | 5.56 | 7 | +1.4 | Within 2 | O 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-05 |  Martín Pérez | B+ | 3.71 | 3 | -0.7 | Within 1 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Seth Lugo | B+ | 3.79 | 1 | -2.8 | Missed 2+ | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Framber Valdez | B+ | 3.89 | 3 | -0.9 | Within 1 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Javier Assad | A | 4.04 | 3 | -1 | Within 1 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Matthew Liberatore | A | 5.88 | 3 | -2.9 | Missed 2+ | O 4.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Carlos Rodón | B+ | 4.6 | 7 | +2.4 | Missed 2+ | U 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Taj Bradley | A+ | 5.88 | 6 | +0.1 | Within 1 | U 6.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-05 |  Jeffrey Springs | B+ | 4.4 | 6 | +1.6 | Within 2 | U 4.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Parker Messick | A+ | 6.28 | 12 | +5.7 | Missed 2+ | U 6.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Anthony Molina | B+ | 3.85 | 6 | +2.2 | Missed 2+ | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-05 |  Ryan Gusto | A | 4.3 | 5 | +0.7 | Within 1 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-05 |  Tyler Glasnow | B+ | 6.59 | 8 | +1.4 | Within 2 | U 7.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Dustin May | A | 4.91 | 5 | +0.1 | Within 1 | U 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-05 |  George Kirby | B+ | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 | Within 1 | U 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-05 |  Ethan Pecko | B+ | 3.6 | 2 | -1.6 | Within 2 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Chris Bassitt | B+ | 4.21 | 6 | +1.8 | Within 2 | U 4.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Yusei Kikuchi | A | 5.39 | 6 | +0.6 | Within 1 | U 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Anthony Kay | B+ | 4.29 | 3 | -1.3 | Within 2 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Sonny Gray | A | 5.21 | 7 | +1.8 | Within 2 | U 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Mason Adams | B+ | 5 | 7 | +2 | Within 2 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-05 |  Cade Cavalli | A+ | 5.67 | 8 | +2.3 | Missed 2+ | O 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-05 |  Zack Wheeler | A | 6.1 | 9 | +2.9 | Missed 2+ | U 6.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Andrew Abbott | B+ | 4.31 | 5 | +0.7 | Within 1 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-05 |  Robbie Ray | A | 5.2 | 1 | -4.2 | Missed 2+ | U 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-05 |  Brandon Pfaadt | A | 4.19 | 4 | -0.2 | Within 1 | U 4.5Underdog Fantasy | Win |
| 2026-09-05 |  Jacob deGrom | A+ | 4.76 | 7 | +2.2 | Missed 2+ | U 5.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |
| 2026-09-05 |  Max Scherzer | B+ | 4 | 2 | -2 | Within 2 | O 3.5Underdog Fantasy | Loss |