Projection momentum

MODEL MOVERS

Compare today's projection against each pitcher's previous saved start to identify improving and declining model outlooks.

2026-09-06

Movers

Risers

Fallers

Average move

1.4

Biggest increase

+3.7

Biggest decrease

-2.2

Projection direction

Risers

Projection increased since the previous saved start

Gavin Williams

#01

vs Detroit Tigers · Previous start 2026-09-01

Confidence A+ · 100/100

Movement

+3.7

5.01 → 8.74

Previous → Current

Tanner Gordon

#02

vs St. Louis Cardinals · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

+2.8

1 → 3.76

Previous → Current

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Jackson Jobe

#03

vs Cleveland Guardians · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

1.9 → 3.91

Previous → Current

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Andrew Alvarez

#04

vs Los Angeles Dodgers · Previous start 2026-08-30

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

+1.7

2.5 → 4.24

Previous → Current

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Bryan Woo

#05

vs Athletics · Previous start 2026-09-01

Confidence B+ · 78/100

Movement

+1.4

4.84 → 6.2

Previous → Current

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Walbert Ureña

#06

vs Pittsburgh Pirates · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

+1.1

4.5 → 5.58

Previous → Current

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Kyle Bradish

#07

vs Boston Red Sox · Previous start 2026-09-01

Confidence B+ · 75/100

Movement

+1.1

3.6 → 4.7

Previous → Current

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Brady Singer

#08

vs Milwaukee Brewers · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence A+ · 95/100

Movement

3.7 → 4.71

Previous → Current

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Clay Holmes

#09

vs Miami Marlins · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence B+ · 78/100

Movement

+0.9

3.4 → 4.29

Previous → Current

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Bailey Ober

#10

vs Chicago White Sox · Previous start 2026-08-29

Confidence A · 80/100

Movement

+0.9

2.7 → 3.58

Previous → Current

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Projection direction

Fallers

Projection decreased since the previous saved start

Payton Tolle

#01

vs Baltimore Orioles · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence A+ · 100/100

Movement

-2.2

8.8 → 6.6

Previous → Current

Ian Seymour

#02

vs Texas Rangers · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence A+ · 100/100

Movement

-2.1

7.7 → 5.6

Previous → Current

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Christian Scott

#03

vs San Francisco Giants · Previous start 2026-08-22

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

-1.9

7.4 → 5.47

Previous → Current

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Kyle Harrison

#04

vs Cincinnati Reds · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence A · 88/100

Movement

-1.3

6.7 → 5.37

Previous → Current

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Tyler Mahle

#05

vs Philadelphia Phillies · Previous start 2026-08-30

Confidence B+ · 75/100

Movement

-1.2

6.3 → 5.09

Previous → Current

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Justin Wrobleski

#06

vs Washington Nationals · Previous start 2026-08-15

Confidence B+ · 78/100

Movement

-1

5.8 → 4.75

Previous → Current

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Randy Dobnak

#07

vs Toronto Blue Jays · Previous start 2026-09-01

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

-0.9

4.82 → 3.95

Previous → Current

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Spencer Arrighetti

#08

vs Kansas City Royals · Previous start 2026-07-24

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

-0.9

5 → 4.06

Previous → Current

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Kyle Leahy

#09

vs Colorado Rockies · Previous start 2026-08-29

Confidence A+ · 92/100

Movement

-0.9

5.8 → 4.9

Previous → Current

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Aaron Nola

#10

vs Atlanta Braves · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence A+ · 100/100

Movement

-0.8

7.1 → 6.25

Previous → Current

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Peter Lambert

#11

vs Arizona Diamondbacks · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence A · 80/100

Movement

-0.6

5.8 → 5.18

Previous → Current

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MacKenzie Gore

#12

vs Tampa Bay Rays · Previous start 2026-09-01

Confidence A+ · 90/100

Movement

-0.4

5.71 → 5.28

Previous → Current

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Gage Jump

#13

vs Seattle Mariners · Previous start 2026-08-31

Confidence B+ · 70/100

Movement

-0.3

6.3 → 5.99

Previous → Current

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