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Game outcome model

NBA SPREAD

Predicts each upcoming NBA game's margin against the real captured sportsbook spread. Play/No Play flags picks that clear our real, backtested confidence bar - not every game is a play.

Upcoming games

23

Qualifying (Play)

16

With real spread odds

5

Saturday, October 24

MIA

MIA @ CHA

CHA
No PlaySat, Oct 24, 6:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)CHA by 3.6
Fair lineCHA -3.5

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
MIL

MIL @ PHI

PHI
No PlaySat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET
Margin (estimate)PHI by 5.8
Fair linePHI -6.0

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
BKN

BKN @ CLE

CLE
Play: CLE ATSSat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET
Margin (estimate)CLE by 11.9
Market spreadBKN -9.5 (Hard Rock Bet)
Fair lineCLE -12.0
Home cover prob.92.5%

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
SA

SA @ DAL

DAL
Play: SA ATSSat, Oct 24, 8:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)SA by 10.4
Market spreadSA -9.5 (Hard Rock Bet)
Fair lineSA -10.5
Home cover prob.47.4%

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
WSH

WSH @ CHI

CHI
Play: CHI ATSSat, Oct 24, 8:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)CHI by 4.6
Market spreadWSH -9.5 (Hard Rock Bet)
Fair lineCHI -4.5
Home cover prob.82.9%

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
HOU

HOU @ ATL

ATL
Play: HOU ATSSat, Oct 24, 8:30 PM ET
Margin (estimate)HOU by 0.7
Market spreadHOU -9.5 (Hard Rock Bet)
Fair lineHOU -0.5
Home cover prob.72.5%

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
NO

NO @ DEN

DEN
Play: DEN ATSSat, Oct 24, 9:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)DEN by 13.9
Market spreadNO -9.5 (Hard Rock Bet)
Fair lineDEN -14.0
Home cover prob.94.2%

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
GS

GS @ PHX

PHX
Play: PHX ATSSat, Oct 24, 10:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)PHX by 4.6
Fair linePHX -4.5

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details

Sunday, October 25

LAL

LAL @ UTAH

UTAH
Play: LAL ATSSun, Oct 25, 5:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)LAL by 8.7
Fair lineLAL -8.5

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
IND

IND @ BKN

BKN
No PlaySun, Oct 25, 6:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)IND by 3.9
Fair lineIND -4.0

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
TOR

TOR @ MIN

MIN
No PlaySun, Oct 25, 7:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)MIN by 1.6
Fair lineMIN -1.5

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
LAC

LAC @ OKC

OKC
No PlaySun, Oct 25, 7:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)OKC by 6.7
Fair lineOKC -6.5

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
ORL

ORL @ NY

NY
No PlaySun, Oct 25, 7:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)NY by 5.6
Fair lineNY -5.5

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
DET

DET @ PHI

PHI
Play: DET ATSSun, Oct 25, 7:30 PM ET
Margin (estimate)DET by 3.6
Fair lineDET -3.5

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
MEM

MEM @ SAC

SAC
Play: SAC ATSSun, Oct 25, 9:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)SAC by 6.3
Fair lineSAC -6.5

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details

Monday, October 26

MIN

MIN @ CLE

CLE
Play: CLE ATSMon, Oct 26, 7:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)CLE by 4.5
Fair lineCLE -4.5

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
WSH

WSH @ CHA

CHA
Play: CHA ATSMon, Oct 26, 7:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)CHA by 14.5
Fair lineCHA -14.5

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
DAL

DAL @ MIA

MIA
Play: MIA ATSMon, Oct 26, 7:30 PM ET
Margin (estimate)MIA by 9.6
Fair lineMIA -9.5

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
CHI

CHI @ BOS

BOS
Play: BOS ATSMon, Oct 26, 7:30 PM ET
Margin (estimate)BOS by 13.7
Fair lineBOS -13.5

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
PHX

PHX @ OKC

OKC
No PlayMon, Oct 26, 8:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)OKC by 6.2
Fair lineOKC -6.0

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
IND

IND @ MIL

MIL
Play: MIL ATSMon, Oct 26, 8:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)MIL by 2.4
Fair lineMIL -2.5

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
ATL

ATL @ HOU

HOU
Play: HOU ATSMon, Oct 26, 8:30 PM ET
Margin (estimate)HOU by 4.2
Fair lineHOU -4.0

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details
MEM

MEM @ UTAH

UTAH
Play: UTAH ATSMon, Oct 26, 9:00 PM ET
Margin (estimate)UTAH by 5.1
Fair lineUTAH -5.0

Margin, market spread, fair line, and cover probability are estimates for information purposes only. Play/No Play is our real, backtested confidence signal.

Game Details

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