1st-inning run model
YRFI / NRFI
Saturday, October 24, 2026
Predicts whether a run scores in the 1st inning, based on today's actual starting lineups and pitchers - not season-long averages. A pick only becomes a play once the model is confident enough (65%+ for YRFI, 35%- for NRFI). No sportsbook line exists for this market yet, so units below assume standard -110 odds.
Games
1
Qualifying plays
0
All-time record
14-17
Slate date
Hit rate
45.2%
Units
-4.7u
Total graded
31
Rays@
BrewersDrew Rasmussen vs. Logan Henderson
Model leans
NRFI 62.3%
37.7% YRFI · 62.3% NRFI
Why
Rays: NRFI in 3 straight - NRFI in 4 of last 5
Brewers: NRFI in 3 of last 5
Drew Rasmussen: has allowed a 1st-inning run in 3 straight starts
Logan Henderson: no 1st-inning run in 1 of last 1 starts
Settled picks
RESULTS LOG
Most recent 31 of 31 graded YRFI/NRFI picks, newest first.
| Date | Matchup | Pick | Result | Units | Running |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians | NRFI (34.6%) | WIN | +1.0u | -4.7u |
| 2026-09-29 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | NRFI (33.9%) | LOSS | -1.1u | -5.7u |
| 2026-09-22 | Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants | NRFI (34.7%) | WIN | +1.0u | -4.6u |
| 2026-09-18 | Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | NRFI (33.6%) | LOSS | -1.1u | -5.6u |
| 2026-09-14 | Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | NRFI (33.0%) | WIN | +1.0u | -4.5u |
| 2026-09-13 | Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | NRFI (34.4%) | WIN | +1.0u | -5.5u |
| 2026-09-13 | Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | NRFI (35.0%) | WIN | +1.0u | -6.5u |
| 2026-09-11 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | NRFI (35.0%) | LOSS | -1.1u | -7.5u |
| 2026-09-11 | Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | NRFI (33.7%) | LOSS | -1.1u | -6.4u |
| 2026-09-07 | Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | NRFI (33.1%) | LOSS | -1.1u | -5.3u |
| 2026-09-06 | Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | NRFI (34.9%) | WIN | +1.0u | -4.2u |
| 2026-09-06 | Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | NRFI (34.3%) | LOSS | -1.1u | -5.2u |
| 2026-09-05 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | NRFI (34.3%) | LOSS | -1.1u | -4.1u |
| 2026-09-04 | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | NRFI (34.1%) | WIN | +1.0u | -3.0u |
| 2026-09-02 | Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | NRFI (31.9%) | LOSS | -1.1u | -4.0u |
| 2026-09-02 | New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | NRFI (33.4%) | WIN | +1.0u | -2.9u |
| 2026-09-01 | New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | NRFI (34.9%) | LOSS | -1.1u | -3.9u |
| 2026-08-31 | Athletics @ Texas Rangers | NRFI (34.7%) | WIN | +1.0u | -2.8u |
| 2026-08-31 | New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | NRFI (34.6%) | WIN | +1.0u | -3.8u |
| 2026-08-30 | Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | NRFI (34.5%) | LOSS | -1.1u | -4.8u |
| 2026-08-29 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | NRFI (34.9%) | LOSS | -1.1u | -3.7u |
| 2026-08-26 | Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels | NRFI (33.4%) | LOSS | -1.1u | -2.6u |
| 2026-08-25 | Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels | NRFI (30.6%) | LOSS | -1.1u | -1.5u |
| 2026-08-23 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers | NRFI (34.9%) | LOSS | -1.1u | -0.4u |
| 2026-08-22 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers | NRFI (33.0%) | LOSS | -1.1u | +0.7u |
| 2026-08-22 | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | NRFI (33.7%) | LOSS | -1.1u | +1.8u |
| 2026-08-21 | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | NRFI (35.0%) | WIN | +1.0u | +2.9u |
| 2026-08-21 | Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers | NRFI (31.7%) | WIN | +1.0u | +1.9u |
| 2026-08-21 | Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | NRFI (34.0%) | WIN | +1.0u | +0.9u |
| 2026-08-20 | Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | NRFI (35.0%) | WIN | +1.0u | -0.1u |
| 2026-08-20 | San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | NRFI (33.7%) | LOSS | -1.1u | -1.1u |